Expectations regarding the iPhone 16 series, which Apple will officially unveil today, were shared by famous supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Kuo predicts that sales of the iPhone 16 will remain at a similar level to its predecessor, the iPhone 15. These estimates, ahead of the event where Apple will introduce its new phones, hint that the iPhone 16 will not create a major increase in demand.
According to Kuo’s assessment, iPhone 16 shipments for 2024 will be around 89 million units. This figure is a slight decrease from the 91 million iPhone 15s shipped during the same period last year. Apple usually plans production based on sales forecasts, so it seems the company does not expect the new model to be very popular with customers.
Another striking detail in Kuo’s report is that shipments of the iPhone 16 are being brought forward. Last year, shipments for the iPhone 15 were mostly spread out over the last months of the year. However, it is stated that shipments for the iPhone 16 will be concentrated in August and September. It is emphasized that this situation is due to the low efficiency in the production of the 5x zoom lens, especially in the Pro Max model introduced in 2023.
iPhone 16 Pro Max is expected to take the lion’s share of sales
Apple is set to ship between 15 million and 17 million iPhone 16s during the pre-order period. Kuo says the 16 Pro Max will be the most popular model during this period, accounting for 38 percent of shipments. The Pro will be second with a 30 percent share. The standard iPhone 16 model will come in third with 26 percent, while the Plus model will have a share of just 6 percent.