It is stated that the demand for Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max models is higher than the iPhone 17 Pro series, which was launched last year. The evaluation note sent to investors by JP Morgan analysts brings a different perspective to the concerns about Apple’s recent reduction of some component orders. Data from the Chinese market also indicates that the new Pro models have a higher sales performance than their predecessors last year. However, it is stated that the difference is quite limited and there is no significant jump in demand. According to analysts, changes in production planning do not mean that there is a more serious slowdown in iPhone sales than expected.
Apple’s launch of the iPhone 18 series on a different schedule than previous years also affects the evaluation of production and sales expectations. While the company only introduced the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max models in September, it postponed the release of the standard iPhone 18 model to the beginning of next year. JP Morgan analysts say the decline in component orders is consistent with usual production adjustments following a major iPhone launch. For this reason, it is emphasized that the decrease in orders should not be directly associated with the weakening in consumer demand. The fact that the standard model will go on sale later also makes Apple’s sales distribution in the last quarter of the year different from previous years.
While iPhone 18 Pro sales are increasing, the lack of the standard iPhone 18 model may affect revenues
According to JP Morgan’s evaluation, standard iPhone models are generally among the most preferred options in the series. For this reason, the fact that the iPhone 18 is not available at the same time as the Pro models causes consumers to postpone their purchasing decisions. Analysts estimate that Apple’s iPhone revenues may decrease by 2 percent due to the standard model not being included in this year’s product range. Despite this, the forecast does not mean that there is a decline in the sales performance of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max models. On the contrary, it is stated that the demand for Pro models is slightly stronger compared to the same period last year.
On the other hand, it is considered that some users who do not want to wait for the standard iPhone 18 model may have turned directly to Pro models. This may be one of the factors supporting the sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series. However, according to data provided by JP Morgan analysts, demand for the iPhone 17 Pro generation continues. It is stated that these models, which are no longer sold in Apple’s official online store, still show a strong performance in other sales channels. Therefore, it is understood that consumers are not only turning to the latest models, but also previous generation Pro devices maintain their place in the market.
Another factor that affects production planning for Apple is that the iPhone 18 family is offered for sale in two different periods. In previous years, the standard and Pro models were released at the same time, allowing the first wave of sales to spread to the entire product family. This year, the fact that only higher-priced Pro models are available in the first stage requires a different evaluation of the relationship between sales volume and income. It seems possible that some of the waiting users will decide to purchase the standard iPhone 18 model when it becomes available at the beginning of next year. However, the extent to which this will be reflected in the total sales volume can be understood more clearly with the pricing of the model and the demand conditions in the market.
The foldable iPhone Duo model stands out as another product that attracts attention in Apple’s sales expectations. It is stated that iPhone Duo, which is expected to be the company’s first foldable phone, will be available next week. JP Morgan analysts predict that approximately 8.5 million units of the device can be sold by the end of the year. Considering that global foldable phone shipments are expected to be between 20 million and 27 million units this year, this forecast corresponds to a very high sales volume. However, it should be noted that these figures reflect analysts’ expectations, not actual sales yet.
Compared to the total size of the foldable phone market, the projected sales amount for the iPhone Duo is based on the assumption that Apple can reach high volume in this category in a short time. However, factors such as the price of a first-generation product, availability, and users’ approach to the foldable design can affect actual sales results. The current demand for iPhone 18 Pro models shows that the company’s upper segment phone sales are not lagging behind last year. The loss of revenue due to the later arrival of the standard iPhone 18 and the possible contribution of the iPhone Duo will be decisive in evaluating the financial performance in the last part of the year. While JP Morgan’s assessment reveals that the decrease in component orders alone does not indicate weakness in demand, it also shows that the sales results of Apple’s different products should be examined separately.