SpaceX’s giant move overshadows the AI ​​race

While there has been a remarkable activity in the private markets recently, the investment interest focused on artificial intelligence companies Anthropic and OpenAI has gained a new dimension. However, the upcoming SpaceX public offering process stands out as a development that may change the course of this competition. According to Glen Anderson, President of Rainmaker Securities, the current picture is not just about the competition between two artificial intelligence companies; On the contrary, there is a much broader market dynamic. In addition, the increase in the number of private market investors makes this competition more complex. Institutional investors, which were limited in number in the early 2010s, number in the thousands today.

On the Anthropic side, there is a remarkable explosion in demand. While it is stated that it is becoming increasingly difficult to access company shares in the secondary markets, the fact that existing investors are not willing to sell makes this situation even more evident. Despite this, it is noteworthy that the same vitality is not seen in OpenAI shares. Although OpenAI still has high valuations, it is stated that some of the investor interest has shifted to Anthropic. In addition, it is reported that OpenAI shares are traded at a valuation of approximately $ 765 billion in the secondary market, although the valuation in the last investment round is higher.

SpaceX overshadows growing interest in Anthropic

The publicly revealed tension with the US Department of Defense played an important role in Anthropic’s rise. Although this process seemed like a negative development at first, over time it strengthened the public perception of the company. However, the increase in user interest and the evaluation of the company in a different position also affected investor behavior. On the other hand, although investors still show interest in both AI companies, short-term momentum appears to be shifting in favor of Anthropic.

However, SpaceX, which is excluded from this competition, draws attention with its stable performance in private markets. It is stated that SpaceX maintained and steadily increased its value even when many private companies experienced a loss in value between 2022 and 2024. In addition, the company management’s more cautious approach to valuation stands out as a factor that supports long-term investor returns.

Considering that SpaceX was valued at approximately $12 billion in 2015 and is now valued at over $1 trillion, the gains made by early investors are reaching remarkable levels. Despite this, the company’s avoidance of aggressive valuation increases has created a more resistant structure against market fluctuations.

On the other hand, SpaceX’s secret application for public offering and aiming to raise funds between 50 and 75 billion dollars brings with it a new liquidity discussion in the market. This development may indirectly affect not only SpaceX investors, but also companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI. Because a large-scale public offering can attract a significant portion of the limited capital in the market.

However, the timing of SpaceX’s possible public offering is considered a critical element. While it is known that the company that takes the first step attracts investor attention more easily, companies that come later are likely to encounter more limited resources. This situation may cause artificial intelligence companies to take more cautious steps in their planned public offerings.

In addition to all this, the current situation in private markets reveals how quickly investor behavior can change. Anthropic’s rising popularity and OpenAI’s more balanced interest show that short-term trends can have long-term consequences. Despite this, SpaceX’s strong position and the upcoming public offering process stand out as an important factor that may reshape market balances in the coming period.